The NFL regular season is truly winding down with just three weeks left to go. Week 16 is the last week we’ll know for sure that teams have to send everybody out there. We probably won’t see too many teams opt to rest starters in Week 17, but the possibility is always there. If nothing else, some guys with bumps and bruises may not push too hard to be out there.
Personally, I don’t think players really tank. I do think front offices and coaches may tank a little bit at times based on their personnel decisions and deployment. Players are too worried about how the tape might look and playing at less than 100% creates a good chance at getting hurt. Your view may vary, but that’s the way I’m looking at it this week and going forward.
The Browns have officially made the switch to Dorian Thompson-Robinson for this week. Even if Jameis Winston hadn’t played so poorly, this is a move that feels like it should have happened anyway, as Cleveland should find out if he’s worthy of being a backup or not.
The Bengals are in the midst of a lost season, yet one where Joe Burrow has played extremely well. Burrow has not played extremely well against Cleveland, though. In seven games, Burrow has a 12/5 TD/INT ratio with a 63.2% completion rate, which isn’t bad, but he’s got a career 68.1% completion rate with a 133/45 TD/INT ratio, so the Cleveland games have absolutely hurt his numbers.
The Browns defense seems to be rallying a bit here late in the season after struggling in the middle part. They’ve adjusted to being without Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Over the last five weeks, the Browns are 16th in EPA/play on defense, but up to 12th in the last three weeks. They at least have the chance to hang in with Burrow and Kevin Stefanski has had good plans against Zac Taylor.
I don’t expect the Browns offense to do much of anything with DTR. He doesn’t have the downfield arm to get Jerry Jeudy in space. DTR only has 7.2 yards per reception in his NFL action. He’s only completed 51.4% of his passes. He’s only run the ball 20 times. There just isn’t a lot to like on a cold day with two teams going nowhere.
Pick: Under 47
The Titans and Colts square off in a battle of teams with no playoff prospects. The Colts were officially knocked out in the AFC South race last week. Given the rest of the schedule for the Chargers, Indy doesn’t have enough time to make up a two-game deficit.
So, for Indy, I think there is a bit of deflation this week among that team. Shane Steichen’s job should be safe, but the team heads into the offseason wondering if Anthony Richardson can truly be the guy. There are likely to be some personnel changes in other places, too.
The Titans obviously have QB questions of their own as they turn to Mason Rudolph this week. Rudolph is a guy looking for a better opportunity for next season and that should be a motivating factor for him. The rest of the team knows that Brian Callahan will be back next season, so those are guys playing for reps, jobs, and also looking to put something better on film if they get the chance to move to greener pastures.
For a 3-11 team to be this short of an underdog seems to say something and I think the switch to Rudolph could give the team a bit of a boost.
Pick: Titans +3.5
Personally, I don’t think players really tank. I do think front offices and coaches may tank a little bit at times based on their personnel decisions and deployment. Players are too worried about how the tape might look and playing at less than 100% creates a good chance at getting hurt. Your view may vary, but that’s the way I’m looking at it this week and going forward.
Week 16 NFL bets:
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12/17, 4:00 p.m. PTCleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 47)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETThe Browns have officially made the switch to Dorian Thompson-Robinson for this week. Even if Jameis Winston hadn’t played so poorly, this is a move that feels like it should have happened anyway, as Cleveland should find out if he’s worthy of being a backup or not.
The Bengals are in the midst of a lost season, yet one where Joe Burrow has played extremely well. Burrow has not played extremely well against Cleveland, though. In seven games, Burrow has a 12/5 TD/INT ratio with a 63.2% completion rate, which isn’t bad, but he’s got a career 68.1% completion rate with a 133/45 TD/INT ratio, so the Cleveland games have absolutely hurt his numbers.
The Browns defense seems to be rallying a bit here late in the season after struggling in the middle part. They’ve adjusted to being without Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Over the last five weeks, the Browns are 16th in EPA/play on defense, but up to 12th in the last three weeks. They at least have the chance to hang in with Burrow and Kevin Stefanski has had good plans against Zac Taylor.
I don’t expect the Browns offense to do much of anything with DTR. He doesn’t have the downfield arm to get Jerry Jeudy in space. DTR only has 7.2 yards per reception in his NFL action. He’s only completed 51.4% of his passes. He’s only run the ball 20 times. There just isn’t a lot to like on a cold day with two teams going nowhere.
Pick: Under 47
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 42.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETThe Titans and Colts square off in a battle of teams with no playoff prospects. The Colts were officially knocked out in the AFC South race last week. Given the rest of the schedule for the Chargers, Indy doesn’t have enough time to make up a two-game deficit.
So, for Indy, I think there is a bit of deflation this week among that team. Shane Steichen’s job should be safe, but the team heads into the offseason wondering if Anthony Richardson can truly be the guy. There are likely to be some personnel changes in other places, too.
The Titans obviously have QB questions of their own as they turn to Mason Rudolph this week. Rudolph is a guy looking for a better opportunity for next season and that should be a motivating factor for him. The rest of the team knows that Brian Callahan will be back next season, so those are guys playing for reps, jobs, and also looking to put something better on film if they get the chance to move to greener pastures.
For a 3-11 team to be this short of an underdog seems to say something and I think the switch to Rudolph could give the team a bit of a boost.
Pick: Titans +3.5
